7 July 2026 / Fortnightly Reviews
Week 18 - A longer view and a lesson in discipline
The portfolio recovered to £2,008 over the fortnight, while a brief Robinhood trade provided a useful reminder that a profitable result does not automatically make the decision-making process correct.
I missed Week 17, so this is the first review covering a full two-week period. I have decided that writing these summaries every two weeks is probably better for me. I am still following the portfolio and the wider market day to day, but the longer review cycle gives me more distance from short-term price movements and helps me stop chasing the account as closely.
Snapshot
Current account value
£2,008
Week 16 account value
About £1,981
Fortnightly move
About +£27 / Approximately +1.36%
Starting capital
£1,999
Position versus start
About +£9 / Approximately +0.45%
Investments
About £1,967
Cash balance
£41 / Approximately 2.04% of the account
Deposits or withdrawals
None
Main permanent portfolio change
None. The long-term holdings remained unchanged.
Short-term trade
Robinhood opened on 1 July and closed on 2 July.
Robinhood result
Approximately £1.09 profit after the two currency-conversion fees, or about 2.7% on the £40.28 deployed.
Income received
18p net Meta dividend and 6p cash interest.
Main positive developments
Gold recovering from its recent low, Rheinmetall improving from roughly -40% to around -30% in the portfolio, and encouraging reports around Meta Compute.
Main disappointment
SpaceX remaining close to break-even after previously showing a much stronger gain.
Main lesson
A positive outcome does not excuse an emotional process. Longer review periods should help improve discipline.
How the two weeks felt
The two weeks felt good overall. The account moved up and down, as it always does, but I have been pleased with the performance and I am very happy with where the portfolio currently sits. The value is now slightly above the original starting capital again, and there were signs of recovery in some of the positions that had been causing the most frustration.
Moving from weekly to fortnightly reviews should also improve the quality of these summaries. A two-week period gives me more to write about, but more importantly, it gives me a wider view of what is actually happening. I can still keep track of daily market developments without feeling that every short-term move needs to become part of the portfolio story.
The Robinhood trade
On 1 July, I joined Robinhood's live event, The World is Flat. During the stream, I heard announcements that I thought were extremely positive for the company, including its international expansion, Robinhood Chain and new products connecting traditional finance with decentralised markets. Because the information was being announced live, I believed the share price was likely to react positively and immediately placed an order for 0.493849 shares.
The position cost £40.28. Robinhood subsequently rose by as much as roughly 10% from the level I was watching, although I did not hold it for the full move. I sold the following day for £41.37. Trading 212 recorded a £1.21 result before the two 6p currency-conversion fees, leaving an approximate net profit of £1.09, or around 2.7%.
Financially, the trade worked. From a discipline point of view, however, it was not a particularly good trade. I acted immediately because I felt confident and excited by what I was hearing in the live stream. I did not complete the kind of structured research I would normally expect before opening a position. The fact that the share price went up does not mean the process was correct.
The useful lesson is to separate outcome from process. I am happy that the trade ended positively and that I exited quickly, but I do not want a small win to encourage more emotionally driven trades in the future.
Portfolio structure
No permanent holdings were added or removed during the fortnight. The Robinhood position was opened and closed within the period, leaving the long-term portfolio structure unchanged.
Holding | Ticker | Week 18 view
iShares Physical Gold | SGLN | Still the largest position and still held as a hedge. Recent recovery has been encouraging.
Vanguard S&P 500 (Acc) | VUAG | Core broad-market exposure; no change in thesis.
Meta Platforms | META | Meta Compute reports are potentially positive, but the plans are still developing and execution remains important.
Realty Income | O | Long-term income holding; no change in conviction.
UBS Nasdaq-100 (Acc) | QQQA | Continues to provide diversified large-cap technology exposure.
Berkshire Hathaway | BRK.B | Long-term quality and capital-allocation holding.
NextEra Energy | NEE | No change in the long-term energy and infrastructure thesis.
Airbnb | ABNB | No change in conviction.
SpaceX | SPCX | Still around break-even and slightly disappointing, but the position remains long term.
Symbotic | SYM | Volatile robotics exposure; no change in conviction.
Rheinmetall | RHM | The drawdown has improved from roughly -40% to around -30%. The F126 cancellation was meaningful, but the broader defence thesis remains intact for now.
Pershing Square Holdings | PSH | Still down roughly 1% to 2%. I remain interested in adding, but I am not making that decision yet.
Alphabet Class A | GOOGL | Long-term technology and advertising exposure; no change in conviction.
SpaceX
SpaceX has again been a little disappointing because the position is still sitting around break-even. It previously moved up sharply, so watching that gain disappear has not been ideal, but I am not worried. I bought the company because I believe in it over the long term, not because I expected a straight line upwards immediately after buying.
The most important point is that the share-price movement has not changed my conviction. I am not looking to sell simply because the position has become less exciting in the short term.
Gold
Gold appears to be recovering slightly after a very difficult period. That is encouraging because it remains the largest position and has been one of the biggest sources of unrealised loss in the account. The recent movement does not remove the drawdown, but it supports the decision not to react emotionally at the worst point.
The longer-term argument also remains relevant. Central-bank demand continues to support the structural case for gold, even though higher interest-rate expectations and a stronger dollar have created significant short-term pressure. I still see the position primarily as a hedge rather than something that must outperform every month.
Rheinmetall
Rheinmetall fell heavily during the period and at one stage was around 40% down in the portfolio. It has since recovered to approximately 30% down, which is still a significant loss but is an improvement.
The fall was connected to Germany cancelling the delayed F126 frigate programme. It is important to describe this accurately: Rheinmetall did not lose the project because it failed to deliver an existing Rheinmetall contract. The company had expected to take over the troubled programme, and the cancellation removed a major prospective order. Rheinmetall said the decision would create a €20 billion shortfall in expected quarterly order nominations, even while confirming that its wider second-quarter trading update remained on track.
This was a meaningful setback and should not be dismissed, particularly because it exposed some risk around Rheinmetall's expansion into naval shipbuilding. However, I do not currently believe it breaks the broader thesis around increased European defence spending and long-term demand for the company's core products. For now, I am holding and watching how management addresses the financial impact.
Meta and Meta Compute
Meta was helped by reports that the company is developing a cloud business that could sell access to excess AI computing capacity and hosted AI models. The internal initiative has been referred to as Meta Compute.
I see this as potentially positive because it could give Meta another way to earn a return on the enormous amount of money it is spending on AI infrastructure. It could also create a revenue stream outside the company's advertising business. However, Meta has not formally confirmed the reported plan, and entering cloud infrastructure would mean competing with much more established providers. It is positive for the thesis, but it is not yet a guaranteed success.
Pershing Square Holdings
Pershing Square is currently only around 1% to 2% down in the portfolio. I remain interested in buying more because the discount to net asset value is still large. At the end of June, the reported GBP NAV was £55.96 per share while the London share price was £37.30, implying a discount of roughly one third.
The company has also continued repurchasing shares. Buying back its own stock below NAV can increase NAV per remaining share, although it does not guarantee that the market discount will close. I am happy to continue holding and watching rather than rushing to increase the position immediately.
ASML and the semiconductor watchlist
The portfolio no longer has direct semiconductor-company exposure, which has helped during the recent sector sell-off. Semiconductor shares have been hit by concerns that valuations and expectations around AI spending had moved too far, too quickly. ASML was pulled down with the wider sector rather than because of one clear new failure in its own business.
I would be interested in returning to ASML if the price approaches approximately €1,550, but that is a watch level rather than an automatic purchase instruction. Before buying, I would still need to check whether the decline is simply market sentiment or whether something has changed in ASML's orders, outlook or long-term competitive position.
Cash and the next period
The account currently holds £41 in cash, equal to roughly 2% of the portfolio. That is almost unchanged from Week 16 and still leaves limited flexibility. I may consider making some sales in the future to build a larger cash reserve and wait for better opportunities, particularly if the semiconductor sell-off creates a genuinely attractive ASML entry point.
I am not forcing that decision now. I am happy with the portfolio and no convictions have changed. I am also becoming more excited about what the next few weeks could offer across the market, but I need to make sure excitement does not turn into another impulsive trade.
The lesson this fortnight
The biggest improvement is the decision to step back and review the portfolio every two weeks. It gives me a better chance of separating normal volatility from genuine changes in a company's investment thesis.
The Robinhood trade showed the other side of that lesson. I reacted to live information, made money and exited quickly, but the decision came from emotion rather than a repeatable process. I should be pleased with the result without pretending that the process was ideal.
Going into Week 19 and Week 20, the aim is to remain patient, rebuild cash where sensible and only act when both the opportunity and the decision-making process are strong.
Sources checked for market context
Robinhood: The World is Flat product announcements, 1 July 2026
Reuters: Meta's reported cloud business and excess AI capacity, 1 July 2026
Rheinmetall: assessment of the F126 programme cancellation
Reuters: European technology and semiconductor sell-off, 7 July 2026
Pershing Square Holdings: NAV and market-price data
Pershing Square Holdings: share repurchase, 30 June 2026
World Gold Council: Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026